Ontario CoronaVirus2 – FACTS (as of 4:00 PM on October 15th, 2020):
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There are approximately 14,570,000 people living in Ontario. 4,572,841 tests (for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus, not for the Covid-19 disease that some but not all infected people suffer) have been performed on Ontarians, but many people are tested more than once and – beginning April 17th, 2020 – the government buried the data about how many people had been tested, and replaced that data with data about how many tests have been performed. Adjusting that figure by the Ford Fudge factor of 3.61%, we can estimate that the number of persons tested as of October 15th, 2020 was 4,572,841 / 103.61 * 100 = 4,413,513.
If “Number of cases” still means “Number of individuals who have tested positive for the virus” (that’s no longer clear), then 62,908 of the estimated 4,413,513 persons tested (i.e., 1.43; or 1.38% of the 4,572,841 tests administered) so far have rendered a positive result (i.e., the test indicates that the person has the virus).
However, of the 62,908 tested positive, 54,004 (85.85%) are “resolved” cases (i.e., the person has survived the infection and is no longer ill, if he/she ever was feeling ill) and 3,031 (4.82%; approximately 0.020803% of the population) have died so, currently, 5873 of the estimated 4,413,513 persons who have been tested (i.e., 0.13% – unchanged from October 14th) are still positive for the virus.
Approximately 9.81% of the living persons who have tested positive for the virus (59,877) are currently positive for the virus (i.e., 5873 persons). It has not been reported how many of those fell ill with Covid-19, but 99.56% of living people who have tested positive for the virus are not currently hospitalized with Covid-19 (across Ontario, a grand total of only 261 people in Ontario hospitals – for any reason, including heart attacks, cancer, motorcycle accidents, etc. – most recently tested positive for Coronavirus).
4,313,450 (97.73%) of the estimated 4,413,513 persons tested (or 94.33% of the tests administered) had a negative test result (they aren’t infected with the virus; down 0.02 percentage points from October 14th).
Of those who have died while infected with the Coronavirus, no cause of death has been disclosed (not everyone who suffers the Covid-19 disease dies from that disease: some die from other diseases they are suffering).
The Ontario government is no longer sharing with the public any information about the individuals recently tested for virus.
TRANSMISSION MODE: GOVERNMENT GOES SILENT AS OF APRIL 8th
On March 31, 2020, the Ontario government began sharing percentages concerning how the virus was transmitted to the infected (that information replaced information about how each patient was infected).
On April 7, 2020, I reported as follows: “NEW!!! – > Yesterday (April 6th), 19.3% were reported as being “neither” travel nor close-contact cases (effective April 5th). 47.9% had exposure information pending. Today (April 7th), 47.0% have exposure information pending, but – SUDDENLY! – *none* of the cases are said to be “neither” travel nor close contact…and, as though by magic, the government is declaring that 19.1% “had community exposure”. From total ignorance to complete certainty that that 19.1% or so obtained the virus from the “community” in just 24 hours. Clearly, this is a *political decision*, not a *scientific finding*. Reporting the 19% as “community” fits the political narrative of staying at home to prevent community transmission (which is not to imply anything about the accuracy or truthfulness of the figure).”
On April 8th, the government stopped telling us how the virus was transmitted. Nothing. No data about what percentage was attributable to travel, nor data about what percentage was attributable to “close contact”, nor data about what percentage was attributable to “community”. I can only suppose that they’ve decided that silence is less politically risky than just making stuff up, as they did yesterday.
On April 14, 2020, Dr. Iacovos Michael – a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Toronto – released a graph indicating the majority of Covid-19 cases are occurring in Long Term Care facilities.
On April 21st, Dr. Iacovos Michael reported that 536 (i.e., 77%) of a total of 699 deaths (as of 11:30 PM) were at Long Term Care or Retirement Homes. Seventy-seven. Let that sink in, as we consider the impact of the Doug Ford government shutting down Ontario’s economy, bankrupting countless businesses and landlords; laying-off, dismissing, evicting or bankrupting countless employees.
APRIL 16, 2020 – ONTARIO’s PATIENT DATA REPORTS REPLACED WITH TESTING DATA REPORTS
On April 16, 2020, the Government of Ontario made a very serious change in the data that it is reporting each day on its https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus website. Until April 15, 2020, the government reported how many persons had been tested for Coronavirus2. As of April 16, 2020, the government is no longer telling us how many human beings have been tested. Instead, it is telling us how many tests have been administered. Because some individuals are tested more than once, the new policy makes it impossible to know what percentage of those who have been tested have tested positive for the virus, and what percentage have tested negative. I released this video, on the afternoon of April 16, 2020, asking for the public and journalists to write or speak to Premier Doug Ford to have him reverse the decision to bury data about the number of persons testing positive/negative for the virus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B06j4qbYUzE . At 8AM on April 17, 2020, on AM 680 News (Toronto), reporter Kevin Misener reported about the concerning change in the government’s reports: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx0Qsth1WUg
As a result of this deliberate obfuscation of the data by the Ford government, I have made changes to the graphs below to reflect the switch from persons tested to tests administered. HOWEVER: I’ve also done a calculation of the amount percentage by which the government’s change (from persons to tests) inflates the data: 3.61% (see method at the bottom of this report). I’m calling that percentage the “Ford Fudge” (“FF” for short). If we assume that the number of tests administered is approximately 103.61% of the number of person’s tested, we can estimate the number of persons tested by dividing the number of tests by 103.61 and multiplying that dividend by 100. I’d prefer not to estimate but – given that the Ford government wants to leave us in the dark about the number of persons tested, it’s better than pretending that tests are persons.
GOVERNMENT REMAINS SILENT ABOUT EFFECTIVENESS OF HOSPITALIZATION
The government is reporting on Hospitalizations. Given the government’s political decision to call both the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the Covid-19 disease that results (in some, but not all, people) from infection with the virus, it is impossible to know whether they are talking about the number of patients who are infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or about the number who, as a result of viral infection, are suffering the Covid-19 disease. Putting aside the absurd Orwellianism into which Ontario’s government has descended, here’s what they are reporting, using the language they have chosen to use:
- Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19: 261 – (0.41% of the 62,908 who have tested positive for the virus – unchanged from one day prior; NOTE: 261 is 4.44% of the 5873 currently regarded to be positive for the virus)
- Number of patients in ICU7 with COVID-19: 67 – (0.11% of the 62,908 who have tested positive for the virus – up 0.01 percentage points from one day prior; NOTE: 67 is 1.14% of the 5873 currently regarded to be positive for the virus)
- Number of patients in ICU7 on a ventilator with COVID-19: 36 – (0.06% of the 62,908 who have tested positive for the virus – up 0.01 percentage points from one day prior; NOTE: 36 is 0.53% of the 5873 currently regarded to be positive for the virus)
It must be kept in mind, however, that – presumably – the only people being tested for the virus are those who are already suffering significant symptoms of cough, fever, or difficulty breathing (which are suffered only by *some* of the people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus), so the percentages are artificially inflated.
The government is not providing us with any data about (a) How many patients hospitalized with COVID-19 have died, (b) how many patients placed in an Intensive Care Unit (“ICU”) bed with COVID-19 have died, and (c) how many patients in an ICU bed *on a ventilator* with COVID-19 have died. This data is essential, because the entire economic shut-down is predicated on sharing the use of these resources over time. If people are dying despite using the resources, there is no apparent justification for the shut-down.
We’ve not been told – so far as I can tell – whether the health care system is able to do anything to prevent the deaths of Ontarians who have suffered Covid-19 disease as a result of SARS-CoV-2 virus infection. We do not know whether the 54,004 persons who tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus *and* whose cases are “resolved” (up from only 8 on March 29th) required medical resources, or whether they just recovered at home.
VENTILATORS, HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE
The government reportedly has 1,311 ventilators (https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/preliminary-study-suggests-ontario-could-face-a-critical-shortage-of-ventilators)…which is not to say that you want to be on one. To hook you up to a ventilator, they paralyze your body (so that you cannot breathe of your own accord) and put you into a coma from which many never awake. Meanwhile, a joint statement of Canadian physician, pharmacist, and nursing associations are reportedly (headline: “Ontario doctors told to stop prescribing unproven drug combination touted by Donald Trump”) calling for physicians not to prescribe Hydroxychloroquine – with which some physicians are reporting 100% effectiveness with hundreds of Covid-19 patients – because, well, Donald Trump and alleged concerns about side effects, including damage to vision: Here’s the article: https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/03/28/ontario-doctors-told-to-stop-prescribing-anecdotal-drug-combination.html. That said, in an April 14, 2020 letter to the editor of the Globe and Mail, Dr. Michael Easterbrook, a Professor of Opthalmology at the University of Toronto, debunked the profession’s expressed concerns that hydroxychloroquine causes eye/vision damage, and explained that “the real concern is the hoarding of hydroxychloroquine, which may result in inadequate supply of the drug for patients with rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.” (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/letters/article-april-14-my-comfortable-reality-doug-ford-is-the-leader-ontario)
I’ve included, in the “Outcomes for those who have tested positive” graph, the number of persons who have tested positive for the CoronaVirus2 and who are on a ventilator each day. The government started providing that data on April 1st. For the first 8 days of reportage, the number of such persons on a ventilator on a given day exceeded the total number who have died. On April 9th, the total deaths began to exceed the number who are on a ventilator on a given day. Ventilators are not a cure. Confidential reports (from a front-line medical professional) I’ve received describe placing the Covid-19 patient on a ventilator as essentially ineffective and even a form of “protracted murder”. Yet we are supposed to “flatten the curve” primarily because – we were told – there are not enough ventilators to handle the anticipated demand. Meanwhile, the number of people recovering without ventilators is tracking nicely with the number of those tested positive for the virus. In other words: the best cure is one’s own immune system. Reports continue to pour in that a very high percentage of those treated with Hydroxychloroquine has recovered. The medical Establishment, and those with a pro-collectivism bent, continue to be of the opinion that a person who is about to suffocate should not be permitted to try Hydroxychloroquine treatment because it might have negative side effects (though the drug is routinely prescribed for those suffering from arthritis or lupus, so the concern seems someone disingenuous, in the face of death). The growing appearance is that they fear its use might actually end the need for the economic shutdown.
ECONOMIC HARM
The economy is being deliberately killed, bit by bit, by government policy: throughout Canada by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal policies, and in Ontario by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative policies. On March 23rd, Ontario’s Premier announced that all “non-essential” workplaces must close on March 24th at midnight. On March 31st, he announced that the shut-down will continue for at least 2 more weeks. On April 14th, he announced that the shut-down will continue until at least May 12, 2020. On April 23rd, he announced that the government is “extending all emergency orders that have been put in place to-date under s.7.0.2(4) of the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act until May 6, 2020.” Billions are being lost. Many businesses/jobs will never return. Some very ignorant and immoral individuals – including federal Conservative Rona Ambrose – have been calling for the federal government to exercise Emergency Powers (making the Prime Minister roughly the equivalent of, say, a Cuban dictator). The current policy – if sustained – if allowed to go on for months – will cause more, and more lasting, damage/loss, to more people, than the CoronaVirus. Any semblance of responsibility with respect to the buying power of your nation’s currency is being thrown out the window…along with the renters and home-owners who have been forced out of business or employment by government’s mandatory economic shutdown. Fascists – notably in Ontario, Canada – are promising that “everything’s on the table” in terms of passing new laws, regardless of the extent to which they violate your rights of life, liberty, and property. The descent into totalitarianism is happening a break-neck speed, and with high levels of public approval. We are witnessing an historical fact: Countries are not murdered…they commit suicide. Meanwhile, Canada’s Trudeau government is singing the praises of globalism, and telling us that “no country is an island”…it’s almost as though they were trying to bankrupt the countries of the world.
OOPS!
On September 24, 2020, Ontario Premier Doug Ford – at a press conference – told a reporter that Ontario hospitals are telling him that 75-80% of people testing positive for Coronavirus show NO SYMPTOMS of illness: https://twitter.com/AndrewSaysTV/status/1309187206087671811
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3.61% “FORD FUDGE”: CALCULATION
Total persons tested:
Mar 31 – 57,874
Apr 1 – 62,733 delta from 1 day prior: 4859
Apr 2 – 66,753 delta from 1 day prior: 4020
Apr 3 – 71,338 delta from 1 day prior: 4585
Apr 4 – 75,046 delta from 1 day prior: 3708
Apr 5 – 78,796 delta from 1 day prior: 3750
Apr 6 – 81,364 delta from 1 day prior: 2568
Apr 7 – 84,601 delta from 1 day prior: 3237
Apr 8 – 88,698 delta from 1 day prior: 4097
Apr 9 – 92,673 delta from 1 day prior: 3975
Apr 10 – 96,321 delta from 1 day prior: 3648
Apr 11 – 103,165 delta from 1 day prior: 6844
Apr 12 – 108,230 delta from 1 day prior: 5065
Apr 13 – 113,082 delta from 1 day prior: 4852
Apr 14 – 119,092 delta from 1 day prior: 6010
Mean delta (day-over-day increase in number of persons tested) = 4,373
Policy Change: Apr 15 – 128,093 tests -> delta from Apr 14 = 9001
Given the 14-day average of 4,373 test results per day, the number of additional *persons* tested as of April 15 should be approximately 119,092 + 4,373 = 123,465. If we treat – of necessity – March 31 as a respectable beginning-point for determining a daily average number of people tested then, given that the number reported in respect of April 15 is 128,093, there is a test redundancy of (119,093 + 4373 = 123,466) – 128,093 = 4,627 tests (i.e., there were approximately 4,627 tests done on people who already had been tested). 4,627 is 3.61% of the 128,093 tests reported in respect of April 15. Therefore, the daily total tests/cases (reported since April 16, 2020) represents approximately 103.61% of *persons* tested. Because the Ontario government apparently wants to hide from us the number of persons tested, I will use the 3.61% overage as the “Ford Fudge” (FF) from now on (or until the Ford government makes the data even more meaningless).
{Paul McKeever is the leader of the Freedom Party of Ontario, in Canada}
Document Details:
Author: Freedom Party leader, Paul McKeever
Publication date: October 16, 2020, 2020. NOTE: Paul McKeever updated this report daily – on his own facebook.com page, and sometimes on twitter.com – from March 22, 2020 until October 16, 2020.
Original publication location: Paul McKeever’s facebook.com account – https://www.facebook.com/pmckeever